Forecasts statistics are funny things. On one hand, there is a basis of some fact, since numbers and projections are based on trends, graphs, and a number of other indicators that essentially spit out a vague prediction of what may come.
On the other hand, for good or bad, forecasts can almost pose as self-fulfilling prophecies if taken as gospel.
Take for example all the talk during the late summer and early fall in 2019 about an impending recession. Bait-clicking headlines, prime time talking heads, and practically every news outlet around was suggesting with the same blind certainty that a recession would be on the horizon in 2020. No wait, 2021. Heck, 2022. OK, ok, sometime in the next three to five years.
I remember an economist once saying, “I can predict with 100% certainty a recession is coming. Just don’t ask me when.”
Well, the housing forecast in 2020, according to the attached infographic, would suggest that homes will appreciate in all 50 states in 2020. New Jersey specifically is expecting to see appreciation of 6.5% in home value.
Mortgage rates saw three-year lows in 2019, but the Realtor.com projections suggest rates hitting only slightly higher at 3.88% (which, by the way, I’d still categorize as a solid rate in my humble opinion).
It’ll be interesting to see where existing home sales head in 2020, as the common theme in real estate throughout 2019 seemed centered on the lack of inventory and a slowdown in home construction.
As always, there will be buyers and there will be sellers. Who has the upper hand in the market is yet to be seen.